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NOTICIAS

  • Trade optimism helps Wall Street close the week on a positive note.
  • Financials and energy lead the rally on Friday.

Major equity indexes in the U.S. started the day in the positive territory and extended their gains on renewed optimism surrounding the U.S.-China trade conflict. Reflecting the strong appetite for risk, the CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street's fear gauge, dropped more than 8%.

After Chinese news agency Xinhua reported that the U.S. and Chinese officials were able to reach consensus on major issues in these week's talks, President Donald Trump confirmed this week's progress in trade talks by saying that they were very close to having a real trade deal with China. Trump further announced that he was planning to meet his Chinese counterpart Xi following the next round of trade negotiations in Washington next week. Furthermore, President Trump signed the spending bill to avoid another government shutdown but declared a national emergency in order to receive the funds that he needs to build the border wall.

Commenting on these developments, "It’s a relief rally, now that Trump is going to sign the (spending) bill and (the) China trade (dispute) looks like its coming to a resolution. It’s going to be a long process but it’s looking positive,” Doug Cote, chief market strategist at Voya Investment Management in New York, told Reuters.

Positive market mood boosted the yields on the T-bond yields and the rate-sensitive S&P 500 Financials Index gained more than 2% on the day. Moreover, trade optimism allowed crude oil to extend its rally and allowed the S&P 500 Energy Index to close 1.6% higher.

When the closing bell rang, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.7%, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were up 1.04% and 0.42%. For the week, these three indexes added 3.1%, 2.5%, and 2.4% respectively.

DXY daily chart

  • The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading in a bull trend above its main simple moving averages (SMAs). 

DXY 4-hour chart

  • DXY is trading above its main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum in the medium-term. 

DXY 30-minute chart

  • DXY is trading below its main SMAs suggesting a bearish bias in the short-term.
  • Bears will be trying to break below 96.70 to reach 96.40 to the downside.
  • On the way up, resistances are seen at 97.00 and 97.20 level.

Additional key levels

Dollar Index Spot

Overview:
    Today Last Price: 96.88
    Today Daily change: - 14 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.14%
    Today Daily Open: 97.02
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 96.26
    Daily SMA50: 96.4
    Daily SMA100: 96.35
    Daily SMA200: 95.49
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 97.29
    Previous Daily Low: 96.95
    Previous Weekly High: 96.69
    Previous Weekly Low: 95.58
    Previous Monthly High: 96.96
    Previous Monthly Low: 95.03
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 97.08
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 97.16
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 96.88
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 96.75
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 96.54
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 97.22
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 97.43
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 97.56

 

  • The Mexican peso was among the worst performers over the week, but USD/MXN held below the 19.45/50 strong support area. 
  • Volatility increase over the last few days, after breaking the strong resistance at 19.20, now support. 
  • Over the next days, a consolidation between 19.20 and 19.45 seems likely. So far there are no strong signals that the rally of the US dollar ended. A firm break above 19.50 would point to more gains ahead. 
  • On the downside, under 19.20 the pair is likely to test an ascendant trendline at 19.05/08. A break lower will likely point to a test of January lows at 18.85/87.

USD/MXN Daily chart 

USD/MXN

USD/MXN

Overview:
    Today Last Price: 19.2702
    Today Daily change: 0.0125 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.06%
    Today Daily Open: 19.2577
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 19.1247
    Daily SMA50: 19.4618
    Daily SMA100: 19.6086
    Daily SMA200: 19.4767
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 19.4726
    Previous Daily Low: 19.2503
    Previous Weekly High: 19.1863
    Previous Weekly Low: 19.0168
    Previous Monthly High: 19.721
    Previous Monthly Low: 18.8767
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 19.3352
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 19.3877
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 19.1811
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 19.1045
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 18.9588
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 19.4035
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 19.5492
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 19.6258

 

Oil daily chart

  • Crude oil WTI is trading in a bear trend below its 200-day simple moving average.
  • WTI broke to a new 2019 high this Friday.

Oil 4-hour chart

  • Crude oil is trading between the 100 and 200 SMA suggesting a sideways market in the medium-term. 

Oil 30-minute chart

  • WTI is trading above its main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum in the short-term. 
  • The next resistance to the upside are seen at 57.00 and 57.50 level.
  • Support is seen at 54.60 and 53.60 level.

Additional key levels

WTI

Overview:
    Today Last Price: 56.14
    Today Daily change: 128 ticks
    Today Daily change %: 2.33%
    Today Daily Open: 54.86
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 53.75
    Daily SMA50: 51.15
    Daily SMA100: 56.06
    Daily SMA200: 62.9
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 55.08
    Previous Daily Low: 53.53
    Previous Weekly High: 55.93
    Previous Weekly Low: 52.05
    Previous Monthly High: 55.48
    Previous Monthly Low: 44.52
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 54.49
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 54.12
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 53.9
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 52.94
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 52.35
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 55.45
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 56.04
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 57

 

The last Schwab Market Perspective report, points out that the sharp rebound in US equity prices since the Christmas Eve low has been a welcome development for the bulls, but they warn “the pendulum may have swung a bit too far”. 

Key Quotes: 

“Equity investors have been cheering the sharp rebound seen since the end of last year, with the S&P 500 up more than 16% since the Christmas Eve low. We don’t want to be buzzkills and we enjoy rallies as much as anybody; but just like you can eat too much cake with bad results, equity gains that come rapidly after sharp corrections can have consequences as well.”

“We believed that U.S. stocks had gotten to oversold levels and were likely pricing in too great a risk of a near-term recession—so a rebound was to be expected. But some of the declines seen toward the end of last year were justified in our minds as economic growth has been slowing, trade uncertainties remain, government dysfunction persists, and corporate sentiment is deteriorating.”

“We don’t believe we’ll revisit the lows seen late last year if a recession remains a 2020 story, but a retrenchment of some of the recent gains seems likely. If a recession looks to be developing this year—and if there is no trade deal and additional tariffs kick in—those market lows could be retested (and beyond).
 

Analysts at Danske Bank expect next week data to show a decline in the Eurozone PMI on the back of weak new orders and political risk. They will be looking to German Ifo figures for signs of a rebound.

Key Quotes: 

“In the euro area, we have a busy week ahead of us. On Thursday, the February flash PMIs are due out. In January, PMIs signalled that the euro area economy is edging closer to stagnation – (indicated by PMI level around 50) – with manufacturing PMI falling to a 50-month low at 50.5 while service PMI showed signs of stabilisation.”

“Falling new orders and the ongoing political disputes still point to some downside risk for the manufacturing index, which we therefore expect to fall to 50.2 in February while we see scope for a rebound in services PMI to 51.4 in light of strengthening domestic demand.”

“Friday brings the German Ifo figures and after the economy had a disappointing growth finish in 2018, we will keep an eye out for signs of a rebound in activity following the latest encouraging signs from Chinese leadings indicators and the German car sector.”

“The final euro area inflations figures for January are due. The preliminary print saw core inflation ticking up 0.1pp to 1.1%, driven by higher services prices. However, it will be interesting to see whether it is the start of a gradual, persistent uptick in core on the back of the Phillips curve dynamics finally playing out or merely driven by one-off factors and a methodological change in the calculation of German HICP.”
 

Andrew Grantham and Royce Mendes, analysts at CIBC point out that US data disappointment, like the recent retail sales report, could become more common and hit the US dollar. 

Key Quotes: 

“While bond yields remained lower, the US$ quickly recovered the ground it lost immediately after December’s ugly retail sales report. It’s true that we should never read too much into just one bad number, particularly in the highly revised advance retail print, but even if we add the largest revision seen in recent years it would still be a disappointing result.”

“And with our expectations that the US economy will slow this year, as others such as the EZ begin to see a stabilization in growth rates, data disappointments could become more common in the US and dollar investors should certainly take note.”

"The OPEC+ cartel's promised production cuts helped WTI and Brent crudes surge as much as 30 percent above their late-December lows," note TD Securities analysts.

Key quotes

"But the upward momentum has been on the wane, as the robust demand growth expectations are being questioned, while lingering concerns that OPEC and Russia, motivated by the loss of market share, may be working on a plan for an exit strategy also arise."

"To see prices further their upward trajectory toward our $60/bbl WTI and $70/bbl Brent targets, OPEC+ will need further supply cuts in the coming months and evidence of tightening markets in US inventories wil have to appear. After production in January was some 1.5m b/d lower than the October benchmark level, and with Saudi Arabia continuing to show commitment to the agreement by signaling an additional 400k b/d of cuts by March, OPEC appears to be doing their part, which makes us confident that prices will reach our targets."

"Should additional OPEC cuts be maintained throughout the balance of 2019, US shale production momentum shift into lower gear, a trade deal between US-China be struck, and no renewal of waivers for Iran sanction be issued, then there is potential for both WTI and Brent to move $5-10/bbl above above our price targets."

  • Cable extends gains late on Friday, still down for the week. 
  • China-US talks, Brexit, FOMC minutes and UK jobs numbers to be key drivers next week. 

The US dollar pulled back further during Friday’s American session, pushing GBP/USD to the 1.2900 area. Cable hit a 2-day high at 1.2895 and it was about to end the week hovering around 1.2885, a daily gain of almost a hundred pips but 50 pips below the level it had a week ago. 

The Brexit uncertainty and the defeat of the UK Prime Minister in House of Commons were the major drivers of the market sentiment over the past week and Brexit headlines are poised to remain the major factor of the currency move in the upcoming week as well”, said Mario Blascak, FXStreet's European Chief Analyst.

Data from the US and the UK over the week showed a mixed bag of numbers. The negative surprises from the US weigh on the greenback. In the US, next week FOMC minutes are due while in the UK, labor market figures will be released. China-US talks will continue and also the Brexit drama. 

In the UK, with six weeks to Brexit day, focus remains on the negotiations. While most would have preferred more clarification by now, it is unsurprising that they are dragging on. It is normal in political negotiations to get much closer to the deadline before
politicians are willing to compromise. PM Theresa May will continue talks with the EU27 in late 
February, when she has also promised a new Brexit vote”, wrote Danske Bank analysts. 

GBP/USD Short-term levels to watch 

Friday’s rally could signal some short-term bottom for the pair particularly if it manages to rise back above 1.2910. The next key resistance is the 1.3000 area. On the downside, below 1.2890 the bearish pressure is likely to intensify. 

GBP/USD

Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.2885
    Today Daily change: 0.0093 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.73%
    Today Daily Open: 1.2792
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.299
    Daily SMA50: 1.2821
    Daily SMA100: 1.2879
    Daily SMA200: 1.301
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.2878
    Previous Daily Low: 1.2773
    Previous Weekly High: 1.3103
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.2854
    Previous Monthly High: 1.3214
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.2438
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.2813
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.2838
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.2751
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2709
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.2645
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.2856
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.292
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.2962

 

"The oil market is setting up for further gains this week after posting another series of higher highs and higher lows," argued Rabobank research team. "Supply-side worries have increased on the margin and geopolitical risk from Venezuela, Iran, Libya and Nigeria is starting to get priced in to the futures curve along with a slowdown in US production growth."

Key quotes

"Looking forward we remain highly convicted that prices are undervalued given the current supply uncertainty. The geopolitical risk premium in the market is increasing but has yet to be fully priced in our view. Our base case forecast is for Brent to be trading in the high-60s in the coming days with upside risks should we see further disruption to supplies."

"Market technicals are also pointing to further upside as we breakout from the coiling pattern we have been in for the last four weeks and momentum buyers flip from short to long. The 200-day moving average of $71.41 in the prompt Brent continuous contract should provide strong resistance above, but that still leaves another $6/bbl before we test those levels."

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, the new president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Mary Daly, argued that the Fed may not need to raise rates in 2019.

"If the economy evolves as I just said I expect it to - 2% growth, 1.9% inflation, no sense that [price pressures are] going up, no sense that we have any acceleration - then I think the case for a rate increase isn't there this year," Daly explained.

  • Mixed data from the U.S. weighs on the greenback.
  • Trade surplus narrows in the euro area.
  • EUR/USD looks to finish the second straight week in the red.

The EUR/USD pair slumped to its lowest level since mid-November at 1.1235 earlier in the day as the rising US T-bond yields boosted the demand for the greenback and weighed on the pair. After finding support near that mentioned level, the pair staged a modest recovery in the NA session and erased a large part of its daily losses. As of writing, the pair was trading at 1.1303,adding only 0.04% on a daily basis. If the pair fails to hold above 1.13 at the end of the session, it will close the week below that level for the first time since June.

The data published by the Eurostat today showed that the trade surplus in the euro area narrowed to €17 billion in December from €19 billion in November. Later in the day, while speaking at an event,  European Central Bank board member Benoit Coeure said that the slowdown in the eurozone was clearly stronger and broader than expected. Coeure further added that the ECB has recently discussed the possibility of a new TLTRO to further weigh on the shared currency.

In the second half of the day, the greenback gained traction after the 10-year US Treasury bond yield rose sharply on the back of renewed U.S. - China trade optimism. Moreover, the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Index improved to 8.8 in February to surpass the market expectation of 7. However, other data from the U.S. showed that the industrial production in January declined by 0.6% and the capacity utilization fell to 78.2% from 78.8% to force the greenback to lose its bullish momentum. The US Dollar Index, which advanced to a fresh 2019 high of 97.37, was last seen down 0.1% on the day at 96.90. Investors may also be looking to book their profits ahead of the weekend and bring in some extra selling pressure on the buck. 

Technical outlook by FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik

The bearish case is stronger in the daily chart, as the price is below all of its moving averages which maintain strong downward slopes. The closest is the 20 DMA at 1.1365. The Momentum indicator heads lower in negative levels and at its lowest for this year, while the RSI lacks directional strength, consolidating around 40.

Supports from the current level came at 1.1250 and 1.1215, the low set in November 2018, with a break below this last anticipating a steeper decline first toward 1.1160 and later toward the 1.1100 figure. The 1.1300 figure is offering an immediate resistance ahead of this week high of 1.1341. Beyond it, the recovery could extend up to 1.1400, where selling interest is expected to return.

GBP/JPY daily chart

  • GBP/JPY is trading between the 50 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) suggesting a sideways market.

GBP/JPY 4-hour chart

  • GBP/JPY is trading between the 100 and 200 SMA on the 4-hour chart suggesting a sideways market in the medium-term.

GBP/JPY 30-minute chart

  • GBP/JPY is trading above its main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum.
  • The level to beat for bulls is 142.40. Resistances to the upside are seen near 142.80 and 143.30. 
  • Supports are seen, near 142.00 and 141.40 level.

Additional key levels

GBP/JPY

Overview:
    Today Last Price: 142.27
    Today Daily change: 89 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.63%
    Today Daily Open: 141.38
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 142.6
    Daily SMA50: 141.29
    Daily SMA100: 143.8
    Daily SMA200: 144.79
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 143.04
    Previous Daily Low: 141.3
    Previous Weekly High: 144.18
    Previous Weekly Low: 141.12
    Previous Monthly High: 144.85
    Previous Monthly Low: 131.79
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 141.96
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 142.37
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 140.77
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 140.16
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 139.03
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 142.51
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 143.65
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 144.26

 

Next week, the key reports in the US include the PMI, capital goods and existing home sales data and the FOMC minutes. Analysts from Danske Bank explain that US-China trade talks are set to continue with apparently more flexibility ahead. 

Key Quotes: 

“Markit PMIs for February (preliminary) are due out on Thursday. We still expect Markit manufacturing PMI to stabilise around the current level of 54.9. While the US is not immune to the global slowdown, expansionary fiscal policy is pulling in the other direction.”

“Thursday also brings capital goods data for December. New capital goods orders fell unexpectedly in November, which shows a slowdown in investments as the end of 2018. We expect investments to continue growing in 2019 but probably not at the same pace as in 2017 and 2018.”

“On Thursday, existing home sales numbers are due out. The housing market has begun to show some weakness, likely to driven by higher mortgage rates.”

“On Wednesday, FOMC meeting minutes are due out. We will be interested to hear the different stances within the Fed on further hikes now it has hinted it is ‘patient’ about raising rates again. Furthermore, we will monitor any insights it might have on how it plans the balance sheet reduction.”

Data released today showed that Industrial Production in January dropped 0.6% unexpectedly. Analysts at Wells Fargo explained that not only did industrial production declined, the already modest 0.3% gain in December. They added that in both months, the weakness was in manufacturing

Key quotes: 

“Manufacturing production fell 0.9% in January amid an 8.8% drop-off in motor vehicles. Broad declines were also evident in other categories.”

“Silver linings are tough to find in this report, although a separately-reported increase this morning in the NY Fed’s Empire Index for February offers hope for a near-term rebound.”

“With January temperatures close to normal, utilities production was up just 0.4% in January. The polar vortex rolled in at the very end of the month, but mostly occurred in February suggesting this category could be a big factor in next month’s report.”
 

USD/CHF daily chart

  • USD/CHF is trading in a sideways trend above the 50, 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs).

USD/CHF 4-hour chart

  • USD/CHF is trading above its main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum in the medium-term.

USD/CHF 30-minute chart

  • USD/CHF is trading between the 100 and 200 SMA suggesting a sideways market, however, bears will most likely regain control in the coming sessions.
  • To the downside, support is seen at 1.0040 and 0.9990 levels. 
  • Resistance is at 1.0090 and 1.0120. 

Additional key levels

USD/CHF

Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.0063
    Today Daily change: 10 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.10%
    Today Daily Open: 1.0053
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.9986
    Daily SMA50: 0.9924
    Daily SMA100: 0.9947
    Daily SMA200: 0.9909
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.0099
    Previous Daily Low: 1.0044
    Previous Weekly High: 1.003
    Previous Weekly Low: 0.9943
    Previous Monthly High: 0.9996
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.9716
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.0065
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.0078
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.0032
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.001
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.9977
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.0087
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.012
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.0142

 

"If you take the numbers at face value, the Canadian manufacturing story looks negative. The energy sector’s weakness has swept its way through the data, but a gradual recovery in oil prices, a possible easing in trade tensions, and solid domestic demand are enough to make us think the sector isn’t as bad as it looks," notes James Smith, ING's Developed Markets Economist.

Key quotes

"On Thursday we received manufacturing data for December and it wasn’t great. Sales decreased for the third consecutive month in a row (-1.3%), with the most notable declines in the petroleum and coal products industry. December’s oil price weakness was largely to blame, and as a result, Alberta’s manufacturing levels took the brunt of it; Statistics Canada reported that sales in this province fell 4.0% in December – the second consecutive monthly decline."

"Nevertheless, labour market fundamentals are good, core inflation remains around the Bank of Canada’s 2% target and – despite the numbers, the manufacturing sector should contribute a decent amount to growth this year. All of which support our view that the central bank won’t be hitting the brakes just yet – we see the next rate hike likely to be in the third quarter."

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic was out on the wires in the last minutes, arguing that the policy rate was a little short of the neutral level but added that they were in no rush to arrive there. Echoing his comments from earlier this week, Bostice said that he favouring one rate hike both in 2019 and 2020.

  • Wall Street starts the day on a strong note on renewed trade optimism.
  • US Dollar Index pulls away from 2019 highs, steadies above 97.

The XAU/USD pair rose to its highest level of February near $1320 in the early NA session but lost its traction as the improved market sentiment made it difficult for the safe-haven precious metal to preserve its strength. As of writing, the pair was trading a little above $1315, adding 0.25% on a daily basis.

Chinese news agency Xinhua today reported that the U.S. and China were moving closer to a final deal and explained that both sides reached consensus in principle on major issues and "had specific discussions about a memorandum of understanding on bilateral economic and trade issues."  

Later in the day, President Trump said that they were closer to have a real trade deal with China than the U.S. ever was and announced that he will be meeting his Chinese Counterpart Xi after the talks in Washington next week. Boosted by the improved market sentiment, major equity indexes in the U.S. started the day in the positive territory and continued to push higher. At the moment, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 area adding 1.35% and 0.8%, respectively.

Meanwhile, today's disappointing industrial production data from the U.S. weighed on the greenback and forced the US Dollar Index to ease from the 2019-high that it set earlier in the session. Nevertheless, the DXY remains on track to post weekly gains for the second straight week.

Technical levels to consider

The pair could face the initial support at $1310 (daily low/20-DMA) ahead of $1300 (psychological level) and $1293 (50-DMA). On the upside, resistances are located at $1320 (daily high), $1326 (Jan. 31 high) and $1332 (Apr. 24, 2018, high).

EUR/GBP daily chart

  • EUR/GBP is trading in a sideways trend below the 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs).

EUR/GBP 4-hour chart

  • EUR/GBP is trading between the 50 and 100 SMAs on the 4-hour chart suggesting a sideways market in the medium-term.

EUR/GBP 30-minute chart

  • EUR/GBP is trading below the main SMAs suggesting bearish momentum in the short-term.
  • EUR/GBP is back into the week’s range as it is trying to find support at 0.8760. Further down supports are seen near 0.8820 and 0.8800 figure. 
  • Resistance is seen at 0.8785, 0.8800 and 0.8820.


Additional key levels

EUR/GBP

Overview:
    Today Last Price: 0.8771
    Today Daily change: -56 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.63%
    Today Daily Open: 0.8827
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.8756
    Daily SMA50: 0.8889
    Daily SMA100: 0.8859
    Daily SMA200: 0.8865
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 0.8842
    Previous Daily Low: 0.8752
    Previous Weekly High: 0.8822
    Previous Weekly Low: 0.8726
    Previous Monthly High: 0.9119
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.8617
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.8808
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.8787
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.8772
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.8718
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.8683
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.8862
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.8897
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.8951

 

  • Crude oil continues with its rally, up almost $3 over the week. 
  • Data ahead: Oil rig count from Baker Hughes.
  • Trump signs national emergency to build wall. 

Crude oil prices extended gains during the American session supported by an improvement in risk sentiment and hopes about a US-China trade deal and despite lower-than-expected US economic data. Also, a weaker US dollar favored the move to the upside. 

In the US, President Trump declared a national emergency to secure funding for his border wall with Mexico. Regarding trade negotiations, he said he will meet Xi Jinping after talks in Washington next week. 

West Texas Intermediate peaked at $55.55 the highest level since February 4. As of writing trades at $55.40, up 1.85% for the day and slightly below February highs located around $55.70. A break above would point to further gains ahead with no much resistance until $57.70 (intermediate at $56.70).  Next in the calendar is the weekly oil rig count published by Baker Hughes.
 

WTI

Overview:
    Today Last Price: 55.7
    Today Daily change: 0.84 pips
    Today Daily change %: 1.53%
    Today Daily Open: 54.86
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 53.75
    Daily SMA50: 51.15
    Daily SMA100: 56.06
    Daily SMA200: 62.9
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 55.08
    Previous Daily Low: 53.53
    Previous Weekly High: 55.93
    Previous Weekly Low: 52.05
    Previous Monthly High: 55.48
    Previous Monthly Low: 44.52
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 54.49
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 54.12
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 53.9
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 52.94
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 52.35
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 55.45
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 56.04
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 57

 

"The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.2% for 2018:Q4 and 1.1% for 2019:Q1," the Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced on Friday.

Key quotes

  • News from this week's data releases decreased the nowcast for 2018:Q4 by 0.2 percentage point and decreased the nowcast for 2019:Q1 by 1.1 percentage points.
  • Negative surprises from retail sales, capacity utilization, and industrial production data drove the decrease.
  • The first 2018:Q4 GDP release, originally scheduled for January 30, has been postponed to February 28 as a result of the partial shutdown of the federal government. 

Additional comments from the U.S. President Trump continue to cross the wires with key quotes, via Reuters, found below.

  • Steel tariffs are working.
  • Expecting legal action to challenge the national emergency; likely to end up in the supreme court.

Additional comments from the U.S. President Trump continue to cross the wires with key quotes, via Reuters, found below.

  • Will meet with China’s Xi sometime after US-China talks in Washington next week.
  • Will declare national emergency for border security.
  • Trade with the UK will increase.

U.S. President Trump recently said that trade talks with China were going very well and explained that they were a lot closer than they ever were in the U.S. on having a real trade deal with China. "It would be my honour to remove tariffs if we can make a deal with China," Trump added.

GBP/USD daily chart

  • GBP/USD is trading in a bear trend below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

GBP/USD 4-hour chart

  • GBP/USD is trading below its main SMAs suggesting bearish momentum in the medium-term.

GBP/USD 30-minute chart

  • GBP/USD is trading between the 50 and 100 SMA suggesting a sideways to a bearish market. 
  • To the downside, support is seen at 1.2780 and 1.2740 level
  • Newt week bulls will likely try to break above 1.2880 to reach 1.2960 figure to the upside.

Additional key levels

GBP/USD

Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.2818
    Today Daily change: 26 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.20%
    Today Daily Open: 1.2792
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.299
    Daily SMA50: 1.2821
    Daily SMA100: 1.2879
    Daily SMA200: 1.301
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.2878
    Previous Daily Low: 1.2773
    Previous Weekly High: 1.3103
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.2854
    Previous Monthly High: 1.3214
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.2438
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.2813
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.2838
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.2751
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2709
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.2645
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.2856
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.292
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.2962

 

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